CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-11-29T10:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18391/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S25E10. The filament eruption is visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-11-29T08:00Z. It is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sudden but weak Bx-By field component rotation accompanied by weak pileup. Followed by field component rotation indicating a flux rope, beginning 2021-12-04T20:12Z. From Teresa: there are signatures of ICME starting at 12 UT of Dec 4 and flux rope signatures right at 20 UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-04T11:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-02T10:40Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.8
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 93.93 hour(s)
Difference: 49.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-11-30T13:55Z
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